Cruzeiro W 3–0 Real Ariquemes W: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Ariquemes W

Carol Baiana 81'

Camila Ambrózio 61'

Vanessa 41'

4/21/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 8Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cruzeiro W78%

×Draw14%

Real Ariquemes W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruzeiro WExpected goals in this matchReal Ariquemes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

0.89

Cruzeiro W

2.90

Real Ariquemes W

0.89

Cruzeiro W creates 226% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 8 away

1.93

creates per match

0.50

1.27

allows per match

3.88

creates per match

Cruzeiro W

1.93

Real Ariquemes W

0.50

allows per match

Cruzeiro W

1.27

Real Ariquemes W

3.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro W+0.00on par

Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro W ↓

Real Ariquemes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Cruzeiro W or draw

91%

Cruzeiro W or Real Ariquemes W

86%

Draw or Real Ariquemes W

22%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro W wins by 2+

58%

Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Cruzeiro W 1+ goals

94%

Cruzeiro W 2+ goals

78%

Cruzeiro W 3+ goals

54%

Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals

59%

Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals

22%

Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro W (draw refunded)

90%

Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Real Ariquemes W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro W attack 1.93 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.90

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.50 + Cruzeiro W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Cruzeiro W scores more

78%

level

14%

Real Ariquemes W scores more

9%

Cruzeiro W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Cruzeiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Vanessa

61'

Camila Ambrózio

62'

Janaína← Isa Fernandes

62'

Larissa Vasconcelos← Mariana Neiva

73'

C. Arrieta← Clara

73'

Rita Bova← Maii Maii

73'

Luana Marques← Nayra Pimentinha

78'

Alice← Geisi

81'

K. Caicedo← Sara Piveta

81'

Carol Baiana

82'

Monik← Maria Vitória

Cruzeiro

Real

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▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Felipe Freitas

62'▲Janaína←▼Isa Fernandes

62'▲Larissa Vasconcelos←▼Mariana Neiva

73'▲C. Arrieta←▼Clara

73'▲Rita Bova←▼Maii Maii

81'▲K. Caicedo←▼Sara Piveta

Cruzeiro W substitutes

JanaínaVasconcelosArrietaBovaCaicedoKemelli

Manager: Paulo Eduardo

73'▲Luana Marques←▼Nayra Pimentinha

78'▲Alice←▼Geisi

82'▲Monik←▼Maria Vitória

Real Ariquemes W substitutes

MarquesAliceMonikMartinhaNany