Cruzeiro W 5–1 3B da Amazônia W: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro W

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

3B da Amazônia W

6/7/2025

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 13Arena Gregorão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cruzeiro W83%

×Draw11%

3B da Amazônia W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruzeiro WExpected goals in this match3B da Amazônia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.46

0.95

Cruzeiro W

3.46

3B da Amazônia W

0.95

Cruzeiro W creates 264% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 8 away

1.93

creates per match

0.63

1.27

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Cruzeiro W

1.93

3B da Amazônia W

0.63

allows per match

Cruzeiro W

1.27

3B da Amazônia W

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro W+0.00on par

3B da Amazônia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro W ↓

3B da Amazônia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Cruzeiro W or draw

93%

Cruzeiro W or 3B da Amazônia W

89%

Draw or 3B da Amazônia W

17%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro W wins by 2+

65%

3B da Amazônia W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Cruzeiro W 1+ goals

97%

Cruzeiro W 2+ goals

85%

Cruzeiro W 3+ goals

65%

3B da Amazônia W 1+ goals

61%

3B da Amazônia W 2+ goals

25%

3B da Amazônia W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro W (draw refunded)

92%

3B da Amazônia W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

3B da Amazônia W away — creates 0.63, concedes 5.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro W attack 1.93 + 3B da Amazônia W defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.46

3B da Amazônia W attack 0.63 + Cruzeiro W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Cruzeiro W scores more

83%

level

11%

3B da Amazônia W scores more

7%

Cruzeiro W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Cruzeiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff