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Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC — Serie A 2026

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
10/19/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 29Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cruzeiro56%
×Draw24%
Fortaleza EC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.70
Fortaleza EC
0.90

Cruzeiro creates 89% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
1.27
Fortaleza EC
0.97

allows per match

Cruzeiro
0.82
Fortaleza EC
2.12

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.11scores more
Fortaleza EC-0.11scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
80%
Cruzeiro or Fortaleza EC
76%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
44%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
31%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
82%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
51%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
24%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
59%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
23%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
74%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 21 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.12 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.27 + Fortaleza EC defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
56%
level
24%
Fortaleza EC scores more
20%

Cruzeiro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cruzeiro 1–0 Fortaleza EC

Cruzeiro beat Fortaleza EC 1-0 in Serie A on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte.