Cruzeiro 3–2 Botafogo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cruzeiro

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Botafogo

4/14/2024

Serie A · Round 1Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Cruzeiro49%

×Draw27%

Botafogo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.90

Cruzeiro

1.40

Botafogo

0.90

Cruzeiro creates 56% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

1.27

creates per match

0.97

0.82

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.27

Botafogo

0.97

allows per match

Cruzeiro

0.82

Botafogo

1.52

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.11scores more

Botafogo+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

76%

Cruzeiro or Botafogo

73%

Draw or Botafogo

51%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

24%

Botafogo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

75%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

41%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

17%

Botafogo 1+ goals

59%

Botafogo 2+ goals

23%

Botafogo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

67%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 21 matches

Botafogo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.27 + Botafogo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Botafogo attack 0.97 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

49%

level

27%

Botafogo scores more

24%

Cruzeiro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff