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Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense — Serie A 2026

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense
11/30/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 36Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cruzeiro49%
×Draw29%
Atletico Paranaense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.31
Atletico Paranaense
0.79

Cruzeiro creates 66% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
1.27
Atletico Paranaense
0.77

allows per match

Cruzeiro
0.82
Atletico Paranaense
1.34

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.11scores more
Atletico Paranaense+0.15scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Atletico Paranaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
77%
Cruzeiro or Atletico Paranaense
71%
Draw or Atletico Paranaense
51%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
23%
Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
73%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
38%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
55%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
19%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 21 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.27 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.77 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
49%
level
29%
Atletico Paranaense scores more
23%

Cruzeiro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cruzeiro 1–1 Atletico Paranaense

Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.