Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cruzeiro vs America Mineiro — Mineiro - 1 2020

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
2/15/2024Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cruzeiro40%
×Draw28%
America Mineiro32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.23
America Mineiro
1.07

Cruzeiro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 43 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
1.50
America Mineiro
1.35

allows per match

Cruzeiro
0.79
America Mineiro
0.95

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
68%
Cruzeiro or America Mineiro
72%
Draw or America Mineiro
60%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
17%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
71%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
35%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
13%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
66%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
29%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
55%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.50 + America Mineiro defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

America Mineiro attack 1.35 + Cruzeiro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
40%
level
28%
America Mineiro scores more
32%

Cruzeiro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 1: Cruzeiro 0–2 America Mineiro

America Mineiro beat Cruzeiro 2-0 in Mineiro - 1 on February 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.