Cruzeiro U20 8–0 Ipatinga U20: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro U20

FT

8 – 0

Ipatinga U20

5/12/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 1Arena Gregorão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cruzeiro U2093%

×Draw5%

Ipatinga U202%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruzeiro U20Expected goals in this matchIpatinga U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.20

0.58

Cruzeiro U20

4.20

Ipatinga U20

0.58

Cruzeiro U20 creates 624% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

3.83

creates per match

0.43

0.74

allows per match

4.57

creates per match

Cruzeiro U20

3.83

Ipatinga U20

0.43

allows per match

Cruzeiro U20

0.74

Ipatinga U20

4.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro U20+0.00on par

Ipatinga U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U20 ↓

Ipatinga U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–013%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U20 or draw

98%

Cruzeiro U20 or Ipatinga U20

95%

Draw or Ipatinga U20

7%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U20 wins by 2+

81%

Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U20 1+ goals

98%

Cruzeiro U20 2+ goals

91%

Cruzeiro U20 3+ goals

76%

Ipatinga U20 1+ goals

44%

Ipatinga U20 2+ goals

12%

Ipatinga U20 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U20 (draw refunded)

98%

Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U20 at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

Ipatinga U20 away — creates 0.43, concedes 4.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U20 attack 3.83 + Ipatinga U20 defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 4.20

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.43 + Cruzeiro U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Cruzeiro U20 scores more

93%

level

5%

Ipatinga U20 scores more

2%

Cruzeiro U20 at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Cruzeiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff