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Cruzeiro U20 vs Futgol U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Cruzeiro U20
Cruzeiro U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Futgol U20
Futgol U20
Felipe Morais 88'
R. Lelis 85'
Rhuan Gabriel 45+3'
6/7/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cruzeiro U2071%
×Draw15%
Futgol U2014%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro U20
2.92
Futgol U20
1.23

Cruzeiro U20 creates 137% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro U20
3.83
Futgol U20
1.73

allows per match

Cruzeiro U20
0.74
Futgol U20
2.00

finishing

Cruzeiro U20+0.00on par
Futgol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U20 ↓

Futgol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U20 or draw
86%
Cruzeiro U20 or Futgol U20
85%
Draw or Futgol U20
29%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U20 wins by 2+
51%
Futgol U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U20 1+ goals
94%
Cruzeiro U20 2+ goals
78%
Cruzeiro U20 3+ goals
55%
Futgol U20 1+ goals
71%
Futgol U20 2+ goals
35%
Futgol U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U20 (draw refunded)
84%
Futgol U20 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U20 at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

Futgol U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U20 attack 3.83 + Futgol U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Futgol U20 attack 1.73 + Cruzeiro U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Cruzeiro U20 scores more
71%
level
15%
Futgol U20 scores more
14%

Cruzeiro U20 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Cruzeiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'
Rhuan Gabriel
85'
R. Lelis
88'
Felipe Morais

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cruzeiro U20 3 – 0 Futgol U20

Cruzeiro U20 beat Futgol U20 3-0 in Mineiro U20 on June 7, 2025.

Goals: Rhuan Gabriel (45+3'), R. Lelis (85'), Felipe Morais (88').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.