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Cruzeiro U17 vs Flamengo RJ U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
Vinicius 81'
Otavio 55'
Akiles 41' (pen)
Dudu 14'
L. Guilherme 75'
5/21/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 2Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cruzeiro U1744%
×Draw24%
Flamengo RJ U1732%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro U17
1.61
Flamengo RJ U17
1.33

Cruzeiro U17 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.79
Flamengo RJ U17
1.56

allows per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.11
Flamengo RJ U17
1.44

finishing

Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par
Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U17 ↓

Flamengo RJ U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U17 or draw
68%
Cruzeiro U17 or Flamengo RJ U17
76%
Draw or Flamengo RJ U17
56%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
22%
Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
80%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
48%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
22%
Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
74%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
38%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
58%
Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Flamengo RJ U17 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U17 attack 1.79 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 1.56 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cruzeiro U17 scores more
44%
level
24%
Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
32%

Cruzeiro U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cruzeiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Dudu
41'
AkilesPenalty
55'
Otavio
75'
L. Guilherme
81'
Vinicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Cruzeiro U17 4–1 Flamengo RJ U17

Cruzeiro U17 beat Flamengo RJ U17 4-1 in Brasileiro U17 on May 21, 2025.

Goals: Dudu (14'), Akiles (41' pen), Otavio (55'), L. Guilherme (75'), Vinicius (81').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.