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Cruzeiro U17 vs Cuiaba U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cuiaba U17
Cuiaba U17
M. Souza 78'
V. Marreta 40'
D. Souza 30'
7/9/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 9Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cruzeiro U1765%
×Draw20%
Cuiaba U1715%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro U17
2.09
Cuiaba U17
0.89

Cruzeiro U17 creates 135% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.79
Cuiaba U17
0.67

allows per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.11
Cuiaba U17
2.40

finishing

Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par
Cuiaba U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U17 ↓

Cuiaba U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U17 or draw
85%
Cruzeiro U17 or Cuiaba U17
80%
Draw or Cuiaba U17
35%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
41%
Cuiaba U17 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
88%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
62%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
34%
Cuiaba U17 1+ goals
59%
Cuiaba U17 2+ goals
22%
Cuiaba U17 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
81%
Cuiaba U17 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Cuiaba U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U17 attack 1.79 + Cuiaba U17 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Cuiaba U17 attack 0.67 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Cruzeiro U17 scores more
65%
level
20%
Cuiaba U17 scores more
15%

Cruzeiro U17 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Cruzeiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
D. Souza
40'
V. Marreta
78'
M. Souza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Cruzeiro U17 3–0 Cuiaba U17

Cruzeiro U17 beat Cuiaba U17 3-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 9, 2025.

Goals: D. Souza (30'), V. Marreta (40'), M. Souza (78').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.