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Cruzeiro U17 vs Bahia U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
Preview
20:00
Bahia U17
Bahia U17
9/22/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 18
63%
Cruzeiro U17
model favours
63%21%16%

Bahia U17 score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cruzeiro U1763%
×Draw21%
Bahia U1716%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro U17
1.98
Bahia U17
0.89

Cruzeiro U17 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.79
Bahia U17
0.67

allows per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.11
Bahia U17
2.17

finishing

Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par
Bahia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U17 ↓

Bahia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U17 or draw
84%
Cruzeiro U17 or Bahia U17
79%
Draw or Bahia U17
37%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
38%
Bahia U17 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
86%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
59%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
31%
Bahia U17 1+ goals
59%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
22%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
79%
Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Bahia U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U17 attack 1.79 + Bahia U17 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Bahia U17 attack 0.67 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cruzeiro U17 scores more
63%
level
21%
Bahia U17 scores more
16%

Cruzeiro U17 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cruzeiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cruzeiro U17 have won 4 in a row
  • Bahia U17 win just 0% of their away games
  • Cruzeiro U17 score first in only 21% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 63% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
WWWDL
U17
DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cruzeiro U17 host Bahia U17

September 22, 2026: Cruzeiro U17 take on Bahia U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.