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Bahia U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Bahia U17
Bahia U17
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
Unknown 90+6', 45+4'
C. Suassuna 65'
Unknown 23' (OG)
8/6/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 6Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bahia U1735%
×Draw21%
Cruzeiro U1744%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia U17
1.81
Cruzeiro U17
2.05

Cruzeiro U17 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bahia U17
1.61
Cruzeiro U17
2.10

allows per match

Bahia U17
2.00
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 73No: 2773%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw
56%
Bahia U17 or Cruzeiro U17
79%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
65%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+
18%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals
84%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
54%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
27%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
87%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
61%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
44%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cruzeiro U17 attack 2.10 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bahia U17 scores more
35%
level
21%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
44%

Cruzeiro U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cruzeiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Own goal
45+4'
65'
C. Suassuna
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Bahia U17 2–2 Cruzeiro U17

Bahia U17 and Cruzeiro U17 drew 2-2 in Brasileiro U17 on August 6, 2024.

Goals: ? (23' o.g., 45+4', 90+6'), C. Suassuna (65').

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.