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Cruzeiro U17 vs America MG U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
America MG U17
America MG U17
Luan 90' (OG)
P. Tavares 67', 52', 13'
M. Souza 62'
Luis Gomes 33'
6/18/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 6Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cruzeiro U1758%
×Draw21%
America MG U1721%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro U17
2.09
America MG U17
1.20

Cruzeiro U17 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.79
America MG U17
1.28

allows per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.11
America MG U17
2.39

finishing

Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par
America MG U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U17 ↓

America MG U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U17 or draw
79%
Cruzeiro U17 or America MG U17
79%
Draw or America MG U17
42%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
35%
America MG U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
88%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
62%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
34%
America MG U17 1+ goals
70%
America MG U17 2+ goals
34%
America MG U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
73%
America MG U17 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

America MG U17 away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U17 attack 1.79 + America MG U17 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.09

America MG U17 attack 1.28 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cruzeiro U17 scores more
58%
level
21%
America MG U17 scores more
21%

Cruzeiro U17 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cruzeiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
P. Tavares
33'
Luis Gomes
52'
P. Tavares
62'
M. Souza
67'
P. Tavares
90'
LuanOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cruzeiro U17 vs America MG U17

Cruzeiro U17 beat America MG U17 6-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 18, 2025.

Goals: P. Tavares (13', 52', 67'), Luis Gomes (33'), M. Souza (62'), Luan (90' o.g.).

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.