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Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs Jacyobá — Alagoano - 2 2024

Cruzeiro Arapiraca
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Jacyobá
Jacyobá
Unknown 34', 29', 23'
Unknown 81', 38'
8/17/2025Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cruzeiro Arapiraca84%
×Draw12%
Jacyobá5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro Arapiraca
2.75
Jacyobá
0.50

Cruzeiro Arapiraca creates 450% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca
2.50
Jacyobá
0.17

allows per match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0.83
Jacyobá
3.00

finishing

Cruzeiro Arapiraca+0.00on par
Jacyobá+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro Arapiraca ↓

Jacyobá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cruzeiro Arapiraca or draw
95%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca or Jacyobá
88%
Draw or Jacyobá
16%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro Arapiraca wins by 2+
63%
Jacyobá wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1+ goals
93%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2+ goals
75%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 3+ goals
51%
Jacyobá 1+ goals
39%
Jacyobá 2+ goals
9%
Jacyobá 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro Arapiraca (draw refunded)
95%
Jacyobá (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro Arapiraca at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Jacyobá away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca attack 2.50 + Jacyobá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Jacyobá attack 0.17 + Cruzeiro Arapiraca defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Cruzeiro Arapiraca scores more
84%
level
12%
Jacyobá scores more
5%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Cruzeiro Arapiraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
29'
34'
38'
81'
Cruzeiro
Jacyobá
Adriano Rodrigues
Manager: Adriano Rodrigues
Distefano
Manager: Distefano

Alagoano - 2: Cruzeiro Arapiraca 3–2 Jacyobá

Cruzeiro Arapiraca beat Jacyobá 3-2 in Alagoano - 2 on August 17, 2025.

Goals: ? (23', 29', 34', 38', 81').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca in Arapiraca.