Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
2/18/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cruz Azul38%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruz Azul
1.30
Tigres UANL
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cruz Azul
1.61
Tigres UANL
1.07

allows per match

Cruz Azul
1.38
Tigres UANL
0.99

finishing

Cruz Azul-0.01on par
Tigres UANL+0.33scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw
65%
Cruz Azul or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
62%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+
17%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals
73%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
37%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
14%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
71%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
35%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
52%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.61 + Tigres UANL defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tigres UANL attack 1.07 + Cruz Azul defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cruz Azul scores more
38%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
35%

Cruz Azul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL

Cruz Azul beat Tigres UANL 1-0 in Liga MX on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in D.F..