Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna: Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul

Preview

02:00

Santos Laguna

9/7/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Banorte

Big match

46%

Cruz Azul

model favours

46%23%31%

Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

66%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cruz Azul46%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.50

Cruz Azul

1.86

Santos Laguna

1.50

Cruz Azul creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.73

creates per match

1.86

1.15

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.73

Santos Laguna

1.86

allows per match

Cruz Azul

1.15

Santos Laguna

2.00

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Cruz Azul-0.30scores less

Santos Laguna-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

69%

Cruz Azul or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

54%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

25%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

84%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

55%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

28%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

78%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

44%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

60%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.73 + Santos Laguna defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Santos Laguna attack 1.86 + Cruz Azul defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

46%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

31%

Cruz Azul at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Cruz Azul score first in only 21% of matches
Both teams score in 79% of Cruz Azul’s matches
Santos Laguna raise their game against the top half — 35% wins vs the upper half, only 29% vs the lower
Cruz Azul sit 3, Santos Laguna 18 in the table
Santos Laguna fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)