Cruz Azul 2–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Cruz Azul

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santos Laguna

Á. Sepúlveda 68'

J. Sánchez 23'

11/3/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Cruz Azul54%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.04

Cruz Azul

1.77

Santos Laguna

1.04

Cruz Azul creates 70% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 142 away

1.66

creates per match

1.10

0.99

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.66

Santos Laguna

1.10

allows per match

Cruz Azul

0.99

Santos Laguna

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

78%

Cruz Azul or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

46%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

30%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

83%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

53%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

26%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

65%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

28%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

71%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.99 · 158 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Santos Laguna defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Cruz Azul defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

54%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

22%

Cruz Azul at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Sánchez

Cruz Azul · M

8.2

Match Events

23'

J. Sánchez↳ C. Rotondi

41'

Luis Gutierrez

44'

Tahiel Jiménez

46'

E. Echeverría← B. Amione

50'

Salvador Mariscal

55'

F. Fagúndez← L. Gutiérrez

55'

S. Muñóz← S. Carrillo

56'

Á. Sepúlveda← M. Levy

56'

P. Aquino← T. Jiménez

68'

Á. Sepúlveda↳ L. Romo

72'

C. Valdivia← J. Sánchez

72'

A. Montaño← A. Gutiérrez

74'

L. Gómez← I. Govea

78'

A. Morales← C. Rodríguez

78'

C. Cándido← C. Rotondi

83'

Gonzalo Piovi

83'

Franco Fagúndez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzSantos

Overview

60%Possession40%

23Total Shots5

7Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots5

8On Target0

12Off Target4

3Blocked1

14Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

569Total Passes381

517Accurate Passes312

91%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Liga MX: Cruz Azul 2–0 Santos Laguna

Cruz Azul beat Santos Laguna 2-0 in Liga MX on November 3, 2024.

Goals: J. Sánchez (23'), Á. Sepúlveda (68').

Cruz Azul controlled possession (60%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in D.F..

Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Cruz Azul 2–0 Santos Laguna