Cruz Azul 3–2 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Cruz Azul

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Santos Laguna

U. Antuna 64'

R. Huescas 41'

A. Lotti 31'

J. Correa 90+3' (pen)

D. Medina 87'

4/30/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cruz Azul48%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.40

Cruz Azul

1.84

Santos Laguna

1.40

Cruz Azul creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.74

creates per match

1.61

1.19

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.74

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Cruz Azul

1.19

Santos Laguna

1.95

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Cruz Azul-0.18scores less

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

71%

Cruz Azul or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

52%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

26%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

84%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

55%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

28%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

75%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

41%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

62%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.19 · 9 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.74 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.84

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Cruz Azul defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

48%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

29%

Cruz Azul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

U. Antuna

Cruz Azul · M

8.5

Match Events

31'

A. Lotti↳ J. Escobar

41'

R. Huescas↳ U. Antuna

58'

A. López← L. González

64'

U. Antuna↳ R. Huescas

73'

R. Carrera← É. Lira

73'

A. Escoboza← I. Rivero

74'

C. Tabó← C. Rotondi

74'

D. Medina← S. Mariscal

74'

J. Correa← J. González

83'

M. Estrada← A. Lotti

87'

D. Medina

88'

C. Domínguez← E. Rodríguez

88'

H. Rodríguez← F. Torres

90+3'

J. Martínez← R. Huescas

90+3'

J. CorreaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzSantos

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots15

3Corners6

5Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target6

6Off Target6

1Blocked3

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

539Total Passes338

467Accurate Passes267

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls7

2Offsides1