Cruz Azul vs Puebla: Preview & Prediction | Liga MX

Cruz Azul

Preview

01:00

Puebla

7/22/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Banorte

Big match

52%

Cruz Azul

model favours

52%25%23%

Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Cruz Azul52%

×Draw25%

Puebla23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.02

Cruz Azul

1.65

Puebla

1.02

Cruz Azul creates 62% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 142 away

1.66

creates per match

1.05

0.99

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.66

Puebla

1.05

allows per match

Cruz Azul

0.99

Puebla

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

77%

Cruz Azul or Puebla

75%

Draw or Puebla

48%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

28%

Puebla wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

81%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

49%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

23%

Puebla 1+ goals

64%

Puebla 2+ goals

27%

Puebla 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

69%

Puebla (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.99 · 158 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Puebla attack 1.05 + Cruz Azul defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

52%

level

25%

Puebla scores more

23%

Cruz Azul at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Cruz Azul score first in only 21% of matches
Both teams score in 79% of Cruz Azul’s matches
Puebla raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 24% vs the lower
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
Cruz Azul sit 3, Puebla 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Cruz Azul

Possession-dominant

Puebla

Balanced

58%Possession48%

84%Pass accuracy78%

17.6Shots12.5

1.68xGBiggest gap1.09

Cruz AzulPuebla

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Cruz Azul

3

Draws

2

Puebla

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 70%

1–03–01–12–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Azul

WDWDW

Puebla

WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cruz Azul face Puebla (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Cruz Azul hosting Puebla. Match starts July 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cruz Azul host Puebla at Estadio Banorte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Cruz Azul vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Cruz Azul face Puebla (Liga MX)