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Cruz Azul vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Puebla
Puebla
11/13/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Cruz Azul52%
×Draw25%
Puebla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruz Azul
1.65
Puebla
1.02

Cruz Azul creates 62% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 142 away

creates per match

Cruz Azul
1.66
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Cruz Azul
0.98
Puebla
1.65

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw
77%
Cruz Azul or Puebla
75%
Draw or Puebla
48%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+
28%
Puebla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals
81%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
49%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
23%
Puebla 1+ goals
64%
Puebla 2+ goals
27%
Puebla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
69%
Puebla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 159 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Puebla attack 1.05 + Cruz Azul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cruz Azul scores more
52%
level
25%
Puebla scores more
23%

Cruz Azul at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Cruz Azul 1–2 Puebla

Puebla beat Cruz Azul 2-1 in Liga MX on November 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Azteca in D.F..