Cruz Azul 2–1 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Cruz Azul

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Necaxa

Edgar Méndez 66'

M. Caraglio 60'

B. Fernández 4'

3/2/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Cruz Azul50%

×Draw24%

Necaxa25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.13

Cruz Azul

1.69

Necaxa

1.13

Cruz Azul creates 50% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 139 away

1.66

creates per match

1.27

0.99

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.66

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Cruz Azul

0.99

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

75%

Cruz Azul or Necaxa

76%

Draw or Necaxa

50%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

27%

Necaxa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

82%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

50%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

24%

Necaxa 1+ goals

68%

Necaxa 2+ goals

31%

Necaxa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

66%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.99 · 158 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Cruz Azul defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

50%

level

24%

Necaxa scores more

25%

Cruz Azul at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Alvarado

Cruz Azul · M

7.5

Match Events

4'

B. Fernández↳ M. Barragán

14'

23'

32'

35'

56'

Y. Yotún← J. Rodríguez

60'

M. Caraglio↳ R. Alvarado

66'

Edgar Méndez↳ Y. Yotún

67'

H. Ruiz← M. Barragán

68'

R. Baca← Edgar Méndez

71'

R. Monreal← A. Sepúlveda

75'

R. Marín← R. Contreras

84'

M. Cauteruccio← M. Caraglio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzNecaxa

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots10

4Corners4

19Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target5

5Off Target4

5Blocked1

4Inside Box7

9Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

313Total Passes294

226Accurate Passes209

72%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4