Cruz Azul 2–3 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Cruz Azul

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Monarcas

J. Rodríguez 76', 40'

S. Ferreira 81', 55', 15'

10/19/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Cruz Azul48%

×Draw25%

Monarcas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.16

Cruz Azul

1.60

Monarcas

1.16

Cruz Azul creates 38% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 49 away

1.67

creates per match

1.33

0.99

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.67

Monarcas

1.33

allows per match

Cruz Azul

0.99

Monarcas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

72%

Cruz Azul or Monarcas

75%

Draw or Monarcas

52%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

25%

Monarcas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

80%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

47%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

22%

Monarcas 1+ goals

69%

Monarcas 2+ goals

32%

Monarcas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

63%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.99 · 159 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.67 + Monarcas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Monarcas attack 1.33 + Cruz Azul defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

48%

level

25%

Monarcas scores more

28%

Cruz Azul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Ferreira

Monarcas · F

9.1

Match Events

15'

S. Ferreira

29'

Joaquín Martínez

40'

J. Rodríguez↳ O. Pineda

45'

Rodrigo Millar

55'

S. Ferreira↳ M. Sansores

56'

58'

64'

69'

69'

J. Ortiz← G. Achilier

75'

É. Flores← R. Millar

76'

J. Rodríguez↳ G. Fernández

78'

F. Aristeguieta← M. Sansores

80'

Guillermo Fernández

81'

S. Ferreira↳ E. Velarde

84'

Josué Domínguez← M. Caraglio

90'

Pablo Aguilar

90+4'

Edgar Méndez← G. Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzMonarcas

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots8

6Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target5

8Off Target2

4Blocked1

6Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

359Total Passes278

292Accurate Passes221

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2