Cruz Azul 1–0 Mazatlán: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Cruz Azul

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mazatlán

B. Gamboa 90+4'

7/7/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Cruz Azul57%

×Draw23%

Mazatlán20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.94

Cruz Azul

1.76

Mazatlán

0.94

Cruz Azul creates 87% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 103 away

1.66

creates per match

0.89

0.99

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.66

Mazatlán

0.89

allows per match

Cruz Azul

0.99

Mazatlán

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

80%

Cruz Azul or Mazatlán

77%

Draw or Mazatlán

43%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

32%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

83%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

52%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

26%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

61%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

24%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

74%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.99 · 158 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.76

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Cruz Azul defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

57%

level

23%

Mazatlán scores more

20%

Cruz Azul at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

C. Rotondi

Cruz Azul · D

8.0

Match Events

39'

W. Ditta

46'

G. Sánchez← J. Colmán

46'

R. Árciga← J. Sierra

68'

L. Faravelli← Á. Sepúlveda

68'

C. Cándido← É. Lira

72'

G. Piovi

75'

C. Candido

79'

A. Montaño← C. Rotondi

80'

B. Gamboa← U. Antuna

81'

B. Rubio← G. del Prete

86'

A. García← C. Rodríguez

87'

A. Garcia

88'

S. Rodríguez← A. Escoboza

90+6'

R. Arciga

90+4'

B. Gamboa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzMazatlán

Overview

66%Possession34%

18Total Shots8

6Corners0

8Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots8

7On Target1

9Off Target7

2Blocked0

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

513Total Passes275

456Accurate Passes204

89%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2