Cruz Azul 2–1 Lobos Buap: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Cruz Azul

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Lobos Buap

11/10/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Azul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cruz Azul58%

×Draw23%

Lobos Buap19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchLobos Buap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.93

Cruz Azul

1.83

Lobos Buap

0.93

Cruz Azul creates 97% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 17 away

1.66

creates per match

0.88

0.98

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.66

Lobos Buap

0.88

allows per match

Cruz Azul

0.98

Lobos Buap

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Lobos Buap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

81%

Cruz Azul or Lobos Buap

77%

Draw or Lobos Buap

42%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

34%

Lobos Buap wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

84%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

54%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

28%

Lobos Buap 1+ goals

61%

Lobos Buap 2+ goals

24%

Lobos Buap 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

76%

Lobos Buap (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 159 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Cruz Azul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

58%

level

23%

Lobos Buap scores more

19%

Cruz Azul at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff