Cruz Azul vs Leon: Preview & Prediction | Liga MX

Cruz Azul

Preview

01:00

Leon

11/2/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Banorte

Big match

47%

Cruz Azul

model favours

47%25%27%

Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Cruz Azul47%

×Draw25%

Leon27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchLeon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.13

Cruz Azul

1.57

Leon

1.13

Cruz Azul creates 39% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 145 away

1.66

creates per match

1.26

0.99

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.66

Leon

1.26

allows per match

Cruz Azul

0.99

Leon

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Leon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

73%

Cruz Azul or Leon

75%

Draw or Leon

53%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

24%

Leon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

79%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

46%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

21%

Leon 1+ goals

68%

Leon 2+ goals

31%

Leon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

63%

Leon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.99 · 158 matches

Leon away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Leon attack 1.26 + Cruz Azul defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

47%

level

25%

Leon scores more

27%

Cruz Azul at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Cruz Azul score first in only 21% of matches
Both teams score in 79% of Cruz Azul’s matches
Cruz Azul have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
Leon raise their game against the top half — 43% wins vs the upper half, only 41% vs the lower
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings