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Cruz Azul vs Leon — Liga MX 2026

Cruz Azul
Cruz Azuladvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leon
Leon
5/12/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Cruz Azul47%
×Draw25%
Leon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruz Azul
1.57
Leon
1.13

Cruz Azul creates 39% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 146 away

creates per match

Cruz Azul
1.66
Leon
1.27

allows per match

Cruz Azul
0.98
Leon
1.48

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw
73%
Cruz Azul or Leon
75%
Draw or Leon
53%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+
24%
Leon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals
79%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
46%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
21%
Leon 1+ goals
68%
Leon 2+ goals
31%
Leon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
63%
Leon (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 159 matches

Leon away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Leon attack 1.27 + Cruz Azul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cruz Azul scores more
47%
level
25%
Leon scores more
27%

Cruz Azul at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Cruz Azul 2–1 Leon

Cruz Azul beat Leon 2-1 in Liga MX on May 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in D.F..