Cruz Azul vs Club America: Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul

Preview

01:00

Club America

9/13/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Banorte

Big match

42%

Cruz Azul

model favours

42%26%32%

Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cruz Azul42%

×Draw26%

Club America32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Cruz Azul

1.42

Club America

1.21

Cruz Azul creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.73

creates per match

1.26

1.15

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.73

Club America

1.26

allows per match

Cruz Azul

1.15

Club America

1.11

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Cruz Azul-0.30scores less

Club America-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

68%

Cruz Azul or Club America

74%

Draw or Club America

58%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

20%

Club America wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

76%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

41%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

17%

Club America 1+ goals

70%

Club America 2+ goals

34%

Club America 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

57%

Club America (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Club America away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.73 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Club America attack 1.26 + Cruz Azul defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

42%

level

26%

Club America scores more

32%

Cruz Azul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Cruz Azul score first in only 21% of matches
Club America score first in only 27% of matches
Both teams score in 79% of Cruz Azul’s matches
30% of Club America’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Cruz Azul

Possession-dominant

Club America

Possession-dominant

58%Possession57%

84%Pass accuracy86%

17.6ShotsBiggest gap13.7

1.68xG1.40

Cruz AzulClub America

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

Cruz Azul

4

Draws

2

Club America

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%

1–12–11–21–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Azul

WDWDW

America

WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cruz Azul vs Club America — Match Preview

Cruz Azul face Club America on September 13, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cruz Azul host Club America at Estadio Banorte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Cruz Azul vs Club America — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Cruz Azul vs Club America — Match Preview