Cruz Azul 1–0 Club America: Result & Stats

Cruz Azul

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club America

5/16/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cruz Azul40%

×Draw26%

Club America34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.30

Cruz Azul

1.42

Club America

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.61

creates per match

1.22

1.38

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.61

Club America

1.22

allows per match

Cruz Azul

1.38

Club America

1.22

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Cruz Azul-0.01on par

Club America-0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

66%

Cruz Azul or Club America

74%

Draw or Club America

60%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

19%

Club America wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

76%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

41%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

17%

Club America 1+ goals

73%

Club America 2+ goals

37%

Club America 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

54%

Club America (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

Club America away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.61 + Club America defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Club America attack 1.22 + Cruz Azul defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

40%

level

26%

Club America scores more

34%

Cruz Azul at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff