Cruz Azul vs Club America — CONCACAF Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Cruz Azul58%
Club America20%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cruz Azul creates 85% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cruz Azul ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cruz Azul at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches
Club America away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cruz Azul attack 2.80 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.96
Club America attack 1.53 + Cruz Azul defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Cruz Azul at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Los Angeles FC
Tigres UANL
Toluca
Nashville SCCruz Azul
FC Cincinnati
Seattle SoundersClub America
Los Angeles Galaxy
Philadelphia Union
San Diego
Monterrey
Vancouver Whitecaps
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Inter Miami
Sporting San Miguelito
LD Alajuelense
CD Olimpia
Xelajú
CS Cartagines
Forge
Real Espana
Mount Pleasant Academy
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
Defence Force
Universidad O&MIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Cruz Azul host Club America on Wednesday, 9 April 2025 at 03:30. The match is part of the CONCACAF Champions League 2018/2019 season.
CONCACAF Champions League: Cruz Azul 2–1 Club America
Cruz Azul beat Club America 2-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 9, 2025.
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in D.F..