Cruz Azul 2–3 Club America: Result & Stats

Cruz Azul

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Club America

U. Antuna 80'

C. Rotondi 24'

B. Rodríguez 45+8'

R. Sánchez 45+5'

J. Quiñones 4'

9/3/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cruz Azul42%

×Draw26%

Club America32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.23

Cruz Azul

1.43

Club America

1.23

Cruz Azul creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.74

creates per match

1.26

1.19

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.74

Club America

1.26

allows per match

Cruz Azul

1.19

Club America

1.11

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Cruz Azul-0.18scores less

Club America-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

68%

Cruz Azul or Club America

74%

Draw or Club America

58%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

20%

Club America wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

76%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

42%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

17%

Club America 1+ goals

71%

Club America 2+ goals

35%

Club America 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

56%

Club America (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.19 · 9 matches

Club America away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.74 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.43

Club America attack 1.26 + Cruz Azul defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

42%

level

26%

Club America scores more

32%

Cruz Azul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

U. Antuna

Cruz Azul · F

8.2

Match Events

4'

J. Quiñones

24'

C. Rotondi↳ U. Antuna

29'

35'

37'

41'

45+3'

45+5'

R. Sánchez↳ J. dos Santos

45+8'

B. Rodríguez↳ D. Valdés

47'

52'

53'

54'

54'

Á. Sepúlveda← D. Cambindo

59'

Á. Zendejas← R. Sánchez

69'

J. Rodríguez← B. Rodríguez

72'

80'

83'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzClub

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots7

8Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

9Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

465Total Passes445

390Accurate Passes372

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

4Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2