Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cruz Azul vs Atletico Nacional — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
3/26/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cruz Azul61%
×Draw24%
Atletico Nacional15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruz Azul
1.67
Atletico Nacional
0.67

Cruz Azul creates 149% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cruz Azul
2.00
Atletico Nacional
1.00

allows per match

Cruz Azul
0.33
Atletico Nacional
1.33

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw
85%
Cruz Azul or Atletico Nacional
76%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
39%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+
34%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals
81%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
50%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
23%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
49%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
15%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
81%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 2.00 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atletico Nacional attack 1.00 + Cruz Azul defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cruz Azul scores more
61%
level
24%
Atletico Nacional scores more
15%

Cruz Azul at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Cruz Azul 3–0 Atletico Nacional

Cruz Azul beat Atletico Nacional 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 26, 2026.