Crusaders W 0–2 Treaty Utd W: Result & Stats

Crusaders W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Treaty Utd W

E. Van Dolder 64'

D. Friesen 45+4'

4/21/2024

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crusaders W40%

×Draw26%

Treaty Utd W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crusaders WExpected goals in this matchTreaty Utd W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.30

Crusaders W

1.41

Treaty Utd W

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

0.86

1.75

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Crusaders W

1.25

Treaty Utd W

0.86

allows per match

Crusaders W

1.75

Treaty Utd W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par

Treaty Utd W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Treaty Utd W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw

65%

Crusaders W or Treaty Utd W

74%

Draw or Treaty Utd W

60%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+

19%

Treaty Utd W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals

76%

Crusaders W 2+ goals

41%

Crusaders W 3+ goals

17%

Treaty Utd W 1+ goals

73%

Treaty Utd W 2+ goals

37%

Treaty Utd W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)

53%

Treaty Utd W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Treaty Utd W away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 1.25 + Treaty Utd W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Treaty Utd W attack 0.86 + Crusaders W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crusaders W scores more

40%

level

26%

Treaty Utd W scores more

35%

Crusaders W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crusaders W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'

D. Friesen

64'

E. Van Dolder

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff