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Crusaders W vs Shamrock Rovers W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Crusaders W
Crusaders W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Shamrock Rovers W
Shamrock Rovers W
D. McNeill 32', 17'
A. O'Gorman 80'
J. Ralph 7'
5/19/2024All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crusaders W34%
×Draw22%
Shamrock Rovers W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders W
1.63
Shamrock Rovers W
1.88

Shamrock Rovers W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Crusaders W
1.25
Shamrock Rovers W
2.00

allows per match

Crusaders W
1.75
Shamrock Rovers W
2.00

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par
Shamrock Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Shamrock Rovers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw
56%
Crusaders W or Shamrock Rovers W
78%
Draw or Shamrock Rovers W
66%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+
16%
Shamrock Rovers W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals
80%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
48%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
22%
Shamrock Rovers W 1+ goals
85%
Shamrock Rovers W 2+ goals
56%
Shamrock Rovers W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)
44%
Shamrock Rovers W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Shamrock Rovers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 1.25 + Shamrock Rovers W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Shamrock Rovers W attack 2.00 + Crusaders W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crusaders W scores more
34%
level
22%
Shamrock Rovers W scores more
44%

Shamrock Rovers W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
J. Ralph
17'
D. McNeill
32'
D. McNeill
80'
A. O'Gorman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

All-Island Cup - Women: Crusaders W 2–2 Shamrock Rovers W

Crusaders W and Shamrock Rovers W drew 2-2 in All-Island Cup - Women on May 19, 2024.

Goals: J. Ralph (7'), D. McNeill (17', 32'), A. O'Gorman (80').

The match was played at Seaview in Belfast.