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Crusaders W vs Lisburn Rangers W — Premiership Women 2026

Crusaders W
Crusaders W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lisburn Rangers W
Lisburn Rangers W
7/5/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 8Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Crusaders W29%
×Draw19%
Lisburn Rangers W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders W
1.85
Lisburn Rangers W
2.48

Lisburn Rangers W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Crusaders W
1.86
Lisburn Rangers W
2.00

allows per match

Crusaders W
2.95
Lisburn Rangers W
1.83

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par
Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Lisburn Rangers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw
48%
Crusaders W or Lisburn Rangers W
81%
Draw or Lisburn Rangers W
71%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+
14%
Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals
84%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
55%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
28%
Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals
92%
Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals
70%
Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)
36%
Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.95 · 21 matches

Lisburn Rangers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 1.86 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.00 + Crusaders W defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Crusaders W scores more
29%
level
19%
Lisburn Rangers W scores more
52%

Lisburn Rangers W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lisburn Rangers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Crusaders W 1–2 Lisburn Rangers W

Lisburn Rangers W beat Crusaders W 2-1 in Premiership Women on July 5, 2024.

The match was played at Seaview in Belfast.