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Crusaders W vs Lisburn Ladies W — Premiership Women 2026

Crusaders W
Crusaders W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
C. Hamilton 90'
J. Rea 90'
E. Parker 27'
9/12/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 14Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Crusaders W50%
×Draw19%
Lisburn Ladies W31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders W
2.73
Lisburn Ladies W
2.17

Crusaders W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Crusaders W
1.69
Lisburn Ladies W
0.89

allows per match

Crusaders W
3.44
Lisburn Ladies W
3.78

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par
Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw
69%
Crusaders W or Lisburn Ladies W
81%
Draw or Lisburn Ladies W
50%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+
31%
Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals
93%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
75%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
50%
Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
89%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
64%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)
61%
Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 1.69 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.73

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.89 + Crusaders W defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Crusaders W scores more
50%
level
19%
Lisburn Ladies W scores more
31%

Crusaders W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Crusaders W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
E. Parker
90'
C. Hamilton
90'
J. Rea

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crusaders W vs Lisburn Ladies W

Crusaders W beat Lisburn Ladies W 2-1 in Premiership Women on September 12, 2025.

Goals: E. Parker (27'), C. Hamilton (90'), J. Rea (90').

The match was played at Seaview in Belfast.