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Crusaders W vs Lisburn Ladies W — Premiership Women 2024

Crusaders W
Crusaders W
FT
6 – 1
Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
9/25/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 16Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Crusaders W50%
×Draw19%
Lisburn Ladies W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders W
2.63
Lisburn Ladies W
2.06

Crusaders W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

Crusaders W
1.86
Lisburn Ladies W
1.16

allows per match

Crusaders W
2.95
Lisburn Ladies W
3.40

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par
Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw
69%
Crusaders W or Lisburn Ladies W
81%
Draw or Lisburn Ladies W
50%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+
31%
Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals
93%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
73%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
48%
Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
87%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
61%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)
62%
Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.95 · 21 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 1.86 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.63

Lisburn Ladies W attack 1.16 + Crusaders W defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Crusaders W scores more
50%
level
19%
Lisburn Ladies W scores more
31%

Crusaders W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Crusaders W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crusaders W vs Lisburn Ladies W

Crusaders W beat Lisburn Ladies W 6-1 in Premiership Women on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Seaview in Belfast.