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Crusaders FC vs Warrenpoint Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
K. Bond 77'
A. Brooks 67'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Crusaders FC87%
×Draw9%
Warrenpoint Town3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders FC
3.00
Warrenpoint Town
0.45

Crusaders FC creates 567% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Crusaders FC
2.00
Warrenpoint Town
0.50

allows per match

Crusaders FC
0.40
Warrenpoint Town
4.00

finishing

Crusaders FC+0.00on par
Warrenpoint Town+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders FC ↓

Warrenpoint Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Crusaders FC or draw
97%
Crusaders FC or Warrenpoint Town
91%
Draw or Warrenpoint Town
13%

Winning margin

Crusaders FC wins by 2+
69%
Warrenpoint Town wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Crusaders FC 1+ goals
95%
Crusaders FC 2+ goals
79%
Crusaders FC 3+ goals
56%
Warrenpoint Town 1+ goals
36%
Warrenpoint Town 2+ goals
8%
Warrenpoint Town 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)
96%
Warrenpoint Town (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Warrenpoint Town away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders FC attack 2.00 + Warrenpoint Town defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Warrenpoint Town attack 0.50 + Crusaders FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Crusaders FC scores more
87%
level
9%
Warrenpoint Town scores more
3%

Crusaders FC at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
A. Brooks
77'
K. Bond

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crusaders FC vs Warrenpoint Town

Crusaders FC beat Warrenpoint Town 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: A. Brooks (67'), K. Bond (77').