Crusaders FC 3–1 Magpies: Result & Stats

Crusaders FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Magpies

B. Burns 90+3'

J. Winchester 80'

P. Heatley 33'

K. Casciaro 38'

7/14/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundSeaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crusaders FC73%

×Draw15%

Magpies11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crusaders FCExpected goals in this matchMagpies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.00

Crusaders FC

2.75

Magpies

1.00

Crusaders FC creates 175% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

Crusaders FC

1.75

Magpies

1.00

allows per match

Crusaders FC

1.00

Magpies

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crusaders FC+0.00on par

Magpies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders FC ↓

Magpies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Crusaders FC or draw

89%

Crusaders FC or Magpies

85%

Draw or Magpies

27%

Winning margin

Crusaders FC wins by 2+

52%

Magpies wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Crusaders FC 1+ goals

93%

Crusaders FC 2+ goals

75%

Crusaders FC 3+ goals

51%

Magpies 1+ goals

63%

Magpies 2+ goals

26%

Magpies 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)

87%

Magpies (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Magpies away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders FC attack 1.75 + Magpies defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.75

Magpies attack 1.00 + Crusaders FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Crusaders FC scores more

73%

level

15%

Magpies scores more

11%

Crusaders FC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

34'

38'

46'

48'

68'

73'

Olmo González← J. Coombes

77'

Jordan Forsythe

79'

J. Winchester← P. Lowry

79'

J. McMurray← R. Clarke

80'

J. Winchester

85'

K. Morgan← K. Casciaro

90'

Olmo González Casado

90+7'

Javi Casares← José Galán

90+7'

Renan Bernardes← L. Coombes

90+3'

B. Burns

Statistics

CrusadersMagpies

Overview

7Corners2

Discipline

1Yellow Cards4