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Crusaders FC vs Dundela — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Preview
14:00
Dundela
Dundela
8/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
75%
Crusaders FC
model favours
75%18%8%
2–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
35%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Crusaders FC75%
×Draw18%
Dundela8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders FC
2.10
Dundela
0.50

Crusaders FC creates 320% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Crusaders FC
2.00
Dundela
0.60

allows per match

Crusaders FC
0.40
Dundela
2.20

finishing

Crusaders FC+0.00on par
Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders FC ↓

Dundela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crusaders FC or draw
92%
Crusaders FC or Dundela
82%
Draw or Dundela
25%

Winning margin

Crusaders FC wins by 2+
49%
Dundela wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Crusaders FC 1+ goals
88%
Crusaders FC 2+ goals
62%
Crusaders FC 3+ goals
35%
Dundela 1+ goals
39%
Dundela 2+ goals
9%
Dundela 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)
91%
Dundela (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Dundela away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders FC attack 2.00 + Dundela defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dundela attack 0.60 + Crusaders FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Crusaders FC scores more
75%
level
18%
Dundela scores more
8%

Crusaders FC at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FC
WDWWL
Dundela
LDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crusaders FC vs Dundela — Match Preview

Crusaders FC face Dundela on August 1, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.