Crusaders FC 0–0 Dundela: Result & Stats

Crusaders FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dundela

9/12/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crusaders FC66%

×Draw25%

Dundela9%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crusaders FCExpected goals in this matchDundela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.38

Crusaders FC

1.50

Dundela

0.38

Crusaders FC creates 295% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

0.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Crusaders FC

1.00

Dundela

0.75

allows per match

Crusaders FC

0.00

Dundela

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crusaders FC+0.00on par

Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders FC ↓

Dundela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Crusaders FC or draw

91%

Crusaders FC or Dundela

75%

Draw or Dundela

34%

Winning margin

Crusaders FC wins by 2+

35%

Dundela wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Crusaders FC 1+ goals

78%

Crusaders FC 2+ goals

44%

Crusaders FC 3+ goals

19%

Dundela 1+ goals

32%

Dundela 2+ goals

6%

Dundela 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)

88%

Dundela (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Dundela away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders FC attack 1.00 + Dundela defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dundela attack 0.75 + Crusaders FC defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Crusaders FC scores more

66%

level

25%

Dundela scores more

9%

Crusaders FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff