Crusaders FC 1–1 Ballymena United: Result & Stats

Crusaders FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ballymena United

F. Bryden 89' (pen)

C. McCurry 50'

9/20/2025

League #408 · Round 8Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Crusaders FC44%

×Draw23%

Ballymena United34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crusaders FCExpected goals in this matchBallymena United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.58

Crusaders FC

1.83

Ballymena United

1.58

Crusaders FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.86

creates per match

1.30

1.86

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Crusaders FC

1.86

Ballymena United

1.30

allows per match

Crusaders FC

1.86

Ballymena United

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crusaders FC+0.00on par

Ballymena United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders FC ↓

Ballymena United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Crusaders FC or draw

66%

Crusaders FC or Ballymena United

77%

Draw or Ballymena United

56%

Winning margin

Crusaders FC wins by 2+

24%

Ballymena United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Crusaders FC 1+ goals

84%

Crusaders FC 2+ goals

54%

Crusaders FC 3+ goals

28%

Ballymena United 1+ goals

79%

Ballymena United 2+ goals

47%

Ballymena United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)

57%

Ballymena United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Ballymena United away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders FC attack 1.86 + Ballymena United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ballymena United attack 1.30 + Crusaders FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crusaders FC scores more

44%

level

23%

Ballymena United scores more

34%

Crusaders FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

42'

46'

50'

53'

68'

K. Corbally← J. Hood

70'

78'

A. Jarvis

80'

D. Lafferty← S. Edogun

82'

D. Toure

89'

F. BrydenPenalty

90+3'

M. Clarke

90+3'

J. O’Reilly← C. McCurry

Crusaders

Ballymena

1

2

5

8

9

15

16

19

⚽

▼

McCurry

22

▼

Edogun

25

Mccallion

41

▼

33

2

12

43

▼

15

42

10

16

9

19

⚽

Bryden

11

Dunlop

Manager: D. Caddell

46'▲O. Mccart←▼L. Barr

Crusaders FC substitutes

1Dibaga3Hamilton23McCart20Mccart24Barr25Clarke64Beattie

Manager: J. Ervin

68'▲K. Corbally←▼J. Hood

80'▲D. Lafferty←▼S. Edogun

90+3'▲J. O’Reilly←▼C. McCurry

Ballymena United substitutes

23Breen6Ali3Lafferty17O’Reilly20Thompson29McNickle31Corbally