Crusaders FC 0–0 Ballinamallard United

Crusaders FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ballinamallard United

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crusaders FC69%

×Draw22%

Ballinamallard United9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crusaders FCExpected goals in this matchBallinamallard United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.45

Crusaders FC

1.75

Ballinamallard United

0.45

Crusaders FC creates 289% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

0.50

0.40

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Crusaders FC

2.00

Ballinamallard United

0.50

allows per match

Crusaders FC

0.40

Ballinamallard United

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crusaders FC+0.00on par

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders FC ↓

Ballinamallard United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Crusaders FC or draw

91%

Crusaders FC or Ballinamallard United

78%

Draw or Ballinamallard United

31%

Winning margin

Crusaders FC wins by 2+

41%

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Crusaders FC 1+ goals

83%

Crusaders FC 2+ goals

52%

Crusaders FC 3+ goals

25%

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals

36%

Ballinamallard United 2+ goals

8%

Ballinamallard United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)

89%

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Ballinamallard United away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders FC attack 2.00 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ballinamallard United attack 0.50 + Crusaders FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Crusaders FC scores more

69%

level

22%

Ballinamallard United scores more

9%

Crusaders FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Crusaders

Ballinamallard

Manager: Declan Caddell

Manager: M. Stafford