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Crucero Del Norte vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Crucero Del Norte
Crucero Del Norte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
9/3/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 28Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Crucero Del Norte48%
×Draw28%
Union Sunchales24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crucero Del Norte
1.32
Union Sunchales
0.83

Crucero Del Norte creates 59% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 85 away

creates per match

Crucero Del Norte
1.00
Union Sunchales
0.78

allows per match

Crucero Del Norte
0.89
Union Sunchales
1.65

finishing

Crucero Del Norte+0.00on par
Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crucero Del Norte ↓

Union Sunchales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Crucero Del Norte or draw
76%
Crucero Del Norte or Union Sunchales
72%
Draw or Union Sunchales
52%

Winning margin

Crucero Del Norte wins by 2+
23%
Union Sunchales wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Crucero Del Norte 1+ goals
73%
Crucero Del Norte 2+ goals
38%
Crucero Del Norte 3+ goals
15%
Union Sunchales 1+ goals
56%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
20%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Crucero Del Norte (draw refunded)
67%
Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crucero Del Norte at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crucero Del Norte attack 1.00 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Crucero Del Norte defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crucero Del Norte scores more
48%
level
28%
Union Sunchales scores more
24%

Crucero Del Norte at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crucero Del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crucero Del Norte vs Union Sunchales

Crucero Del Norte beat Union Sunchales 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí in Gran Posadas, Provincia de Misiones.