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Crucero Del Norte vs San Jorge Tucumán — Torneo Federal A 2018

Crucero Del Norte
Crucero Del Norte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
11/18/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 14Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí (Garupá (Gran Posadas), Provincia de Misiones)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Crucero Del Norte37%
×Draw27%
San Jorge Tucumán36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crucero Del Norte
1.27
San Jorge Tucumán
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Crucero Del Norte
1.00
San Jorge Tucumán
1.59

allows per match

Crucero Del Norte
0.89
San Jorge Tucumán
1.53

finishing

Crucero Del Norte+0.00on par
San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crucero Del Norte ↓

San Jorge Tucumán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crucero Del Norte or draw
64%
Crucero Del Norte or San Jorge Tucumán
73%
Draw or San Jorge Tucumán
63%

Winning margin

Crucero Del Norte wins by 2+
16%
San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crucero Del Norte 1+ goals
72%
Crucero Del Norte 2+ goals
36%
Crucero Del Norte 3+ goals
14%
San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
71%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
35%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Crucero Del Norte (draw refunded)
51%
San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crucero Del Norte at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

San Jorge Tucumán away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crucero Del Norte attack 1.00 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.59 + Crucero Del Norte defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Crucero Del Norte scores more
37%
level
27%
San Jorge Tucumán scores more
36%

Crucero Del Norte at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Crucero Del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Crucero Del Norte 1–0 San Jorge Tucumán

Crucero Del Norte beat San Jorge Tucumán 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí (Garupá (Gran Posadas), Provincia de Misiones).