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Crucero Del Norte vs CDJU Gualeguaychu — Torneo Federal A 2018

Crucero Del Norte
Crucero Del Norte
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
7/9/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 18Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Crucero Del Norte48%
×Draw29%
CDJU Gualeguaychu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crucero Del Norte
1.29
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.80

Crucero Del Norte creates 61% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 56 away

creates per match

Crucero Del Norte
1.00
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.71

allows per match

Crucero Del Norte
0.89
CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.59

finishing

Crucero Del Norte+0.00on par
CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crucero Del Norte ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Crucero Del Norte or draw
77%
Crucero Del Norte or CDJU Gualeguaychu
71%
Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu
52%

Winning margin

Crucero Del Norte wins by 2+
22%
CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Crucero Del Norte 1+ goals
72%
Crucero Del Norte 2+ goals
37%
Crucero Del Norte 3+ goals
14%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
55%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
19%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Crucero Del Norte (draw refunded)
67%
CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crucero Del Norte at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crucero Del Norte attack 1.00 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.71 + Crucero Del Norte defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crucero Del Norte scores more
48%
level
29%
CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
23%

Crucero Del Norte at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crucero Del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crucero Del Norte vs CDJU Gualeguaychu

Crucero Del Norte and CDJU Gualeguaychu drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí in Gran Posadas, Provincia de Misiones.