Croydon Kings 1–2 West Adelaide: Result & Stats

Croydon Kings

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

West Adelaide

3/21/2026

South Australia NPL · Round 4Regency Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Croydon Kings54%

×Draw22%

West Adelaide24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croydon KingsExpected goals in this matchWest Adelaide

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.27

Croydon Kings

1.98

West Adelaide

1.27

Croydon Kings creates 56% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 29 away

1.78

creates per match

1.00

1.54

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Croydon Kings

1.78

West Adelaide

1.00

allows per match

Croydon Kings

1.54

West Adelaide

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croydon Kings+0.00on par

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croydon Kings ↓

West Adelaide →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Croydon Kings or draw

76%

Croydon Kings or West Adelaide

78%

Draw or West Adelaide

46%

Winning margin

Croydon Kings wins by 2+

31%

West Adelaide wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Croydon Kings 1+ goals

86%

Croydon Kings 2+ goals

59%

Croydon Kings 3+ goals

31%

West Adelaide 1+ goals

72%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

36%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Croydon Kings (draw refunded)

69%

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croydon Kings at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croydon Kings attack 1.78 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

West Adelaide attack 1.00 + Croydon Kings defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Croydon Kings scores more

54%

level

22%

West Adelaide scores more

24%

Croydon Kings at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Croydon Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff