Croydon Kings 3–2 Adelaide Raiders: Result & Stats

Croydon Kings

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Adelaide Raiders

5/1/2025

South Australia NPL · Round 8Regency Park Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Croydon Kings46%

×Draw22%

Adelaide Raiders32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croydon KingsExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Raiders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.56

Croydon Kings

1.92

Adelaide Raiders

1.56

Croydon Kings creates 23% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 54 away

1.78

creates per match

1.59

1.54

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Croydon Kings

1.78

Adelaide Raiders

1.59

allows per match

Croydon Kings

1.54

Adelaide Raiders

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croydon Kings+0.00on par

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croydon Kings ↓

Adelaide Raiders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Croydon Kings or draw

68%

Croydon Kings or Adelaide Raiders

78%

Draw or Adelaide Raiders

54%

Winning margin

Croydon Kings wins by 2+

26%

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Croydon Kings 1+ goals

85%

Croydon Kings 2+ goals

57%

Croydon Kings 3+ goals

30%

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

79%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

46%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Croydon Kings (draw refunded)

59%

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croydon Kings at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

Adelaide Raiders away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croydon Kings attack 1.78 + Adelaide Raiders defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.59 + Croydon Kings defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Croydon Kings scores more

46%

level

22%

Adelaide Raiders scores more

32%

Croydon Kings at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Croydon Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff