Crowborough Athletic 5–2 Merstham: Result & Stats

Crowborough Athletic

FT

5 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Merstham

4/25/2026

League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Crowborough Athletic60%

×Draw20%

Merstham20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crowborough AthleticExpected goals in this matchMerstham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.17

Crowborough Athletic

2.17

Merstham

1.17

Crowborough Athletic creates 85% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

2.67

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Crowborough Athletic

2.67

Merstham

1.33

allows per match

Crowborough Athletic

1.00

Merstham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crowborough Athletic+0.00on par

Merstham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crowborough Athletic ↓

Merstham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Crowborough Athletic or draw

80%

Crowborough Athletic or Merstham

80%

Draw or Merstham

40%

Winning margin

Crowborough Athletic wins by 2+

37%

Merstham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Crowborough Athletic 1+ goals

89%

Crowborough Athletic 2+ goals

64%

Crowborough Athletic 3+ goals

36%

Merstham 1+ goals

69%

Merstham 2+ goals

33%

Merstham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crowborough Athletic (draw refunded)

75%

Merstham (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crowborough Athletic at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Merstham away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crowborough Athletic attack 2.67 + Merstham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Merstham attack 1.33 + Crowborough Athletic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Crowborough Athletic scores more

60%

level

20%

Merstham scores more

20%

Crowborough Athletic at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Crowborough Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff