Crotone 3–1 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats

Crotone

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Virtus Entella

G. Crociata 63'

S. Nwankwo 38', 27'

G. De Luca 79'

10/5/2019

Serie B · Round 7Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crotone54%

×Draw26%

Virtus Entella21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CrotoneExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.85

Crotone

1.54

Virtus Entella

0.85

Crotone creates 81% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 60 away

1.46

creates per match

0.68

1.02

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Crotone

1.46

Virtus Entella

0.68

allows per match

Crotone

1.02

Virtus Entella

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Crotone or draw

79%

Crotone or Virtus Entella

74%

Draw or Virtus Entella

46%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+

28%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals

79%

Crotone 2+ goals

45%

Crotone 3+ goals

20%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

57%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

21%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)

72%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 50 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.46 + Virtus Entella defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Virtus Entella attack 0.68 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Crotone scores more

54%

level

26%

Virtus Entella scores more

21%

Crotone at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

S. Nwankwo

Crotone · F

8.5

Match Events

11'

27'

38'

53'

57'

M. Sala← M. Eramo

63'

G. Crociata↳ S. Molina

66'

C. Morra← M. Mancosu

69'

Fabrizio Poli

71'

M. López← S. Nwankwo

71'

L. Vido← Junior Messias

71'

F. Bonini← F. Poli

78'

N. Zanellato← G. Crociata

79'

G. De Luca↳ M. Sala

87'

Guillaume Gigliotti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrotoneVirtus

Overview

64%Possession36%

21Total Shots11

8Corners3

21Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots11

7On Target2

8Off Target6

6Blocked3

11Inside Box6

10Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

508Total Passes269

425Accurate Passes180

84%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides4