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Crotone vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Crotone
Crotone
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
9/24/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 5Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Crotone49%
×Draw26%
Juve Stabia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.48
Juve Stabia
0.97

Crotone creates 53% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 60 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.43
Juve Stabia
0.92

allows per match

Crotone
1.02
Juve Stabia
1.53

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
75%
Crotone or Juve Stabia
74%
Draw or Juve Stabia
51%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
25%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
77%
Crotone 2+ goals
43%
Crotone 3+ goals
19%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
62%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
25%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
66%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.43 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crotone scores more
49%
level
26%
Juve Stabia scores more
25%

Crotone at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crotone vs Juve Stabia

Crotone beat Juve Stabia 2-0 in Serie B on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.